![]() ![]() Kronsteen’s confidence, often seen in politics, is therefore misplaced even in chess yet chess is simple compared to the systems that scientists or politicians have to try to understand, predict, and control. ![]() Chess is merely 32 pieces on an 8×8 grid with a few simple rules but the number of possible games is much greater than 10 80. A game which has ten different possible moves at each turn and runs for two turns has 10 2 possible ways of being played if it runs for fifty turns it has 10 50 possible ways of being played, ‘a number which substantially exceeds the number of atoms in the whole of our planet earth’ (Holland) if it runs for eighty turns it has 10 80 possible ways of being played, which is about the estimated number of atoms in the Universe. Political analysis is full of chess metaphors, reflecting an old tradition of seeing games as models of physical and social reality. Kronsteen: Yes it is, because I have anticipated every possible variation of counter-move. Kronsteen outlines to Blofeld his plan to trick Bond into stealing the machine for SPECTRE.īlofeld: Kronsteen, you are sure this plan is foolproof? Effective action and (even loose) control are very hard and most endeavours fail.Īt the beginning of From Russia With Love (the movie not the book), Kronsteen, a Russian chess master and SPECTRE strategist, is summoned to Blofeld’s lair to discuss the plot to steal the super-secret ‘Lektor Decoder’ and kill Bond. Prediction is extremely hard even for small timescales. Interdependence, feedback, and nonlinearity mean that systems are fragile and vulnerable to nonlinear shocks: ‘big things come from small beginnings’ and problems cascade, ‘they come not single spies / But in battalions’. Properties emerge from feedback between vast numbers of interactions: for example, the war of ant colonies, the immune system’s defences, market prices, and abstract thoughts all emerge from the interaction of millions of individual agents. Our world is based on extremely complex, nonlinear, interdependent networks (physical, mental, social). Part I: ‘A combustible mixture of ignorance and power’ ‘You’re a mutant virus, I’m the immune system and it’s my job to expel you from the organism.’ DfE official re Gove’s team.Īre you fed up with the Hollow Men in charge of everything and do you want to change things more than the three party leaders do? I am and I do. Which way will you go?” Colonel ’60 second’ Boyd. That’s when you will have to make a decision. And your work might make a difference.” He paused and stared into the officer’s eyes and heart. You will be true to your friends and to yourself. But you won’t have to compromise yourself. If you decide you want to do something, you may not get promoted and you may not get the good assignments and you certainly will not be a favorite of your superiors. “Or you can go that way and you can do something – something for your country and for your Air Force and for yourself. But you will be a member of the club and you will get promoted and you will get good assignments.” Then Boyd raised his other hand and pointed another direction. You will have to make compromises and you will have to turn your back on your friends. ![]() “And you’re going to have to make a decision about which direction you want to go.” He raised his hand and pointed. “Tiger, one day you will come to a fork in the road,” he said. Shape without form, shade without colour, ![]()
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